Prediction Markets to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030
- Bernstein analysts predict prediction-market volumes will hit $1 trillion by the end of the decade.
- Institutional investors are expected to adopt prediction markets for managing risk related to policy and political events.
- Currently, sports account for a significant portion of trading volumes on Polymarket (42%) and Kalshi (78%).
- Sports-related event contracts currently make up about 62% of trading volumes but are projected to decrease to around 31% by 2030.
- Revenue from prediction markets is forecasted to grow from $500 million in 2025 to approximately $10.8 billion by the end of the decade.
Prediction markets are gaining traction as tools for institutional investors seeking direct exposure to economic, business, and political events. This shift is expected as these markets offer a more precise hedging mechanism compared to traditional derivatives like interest-rate derivatives and credit default swaps.
The anticipated growth in prediction market volumes and revenue highlights their increasing acceptance among institutional players, with sports betting’s dominance expected to moderate over time as other event types gain popularity. Source
