Galaxy argued in research published Oct. 26, after it was sent to clients Oct. 22, that conditions favored bitcoin retaking $125,000. Research head Alex Thorn said he believed the bear market ended in June and bitcoin had entered an accumulation phase, citing reduced selling pressure and resilient demand. These were Galaxy’s assessments, not a forecast that bitcoin would reach that price by a set date.
Galaxy said its case would weaken if bitcoin closed a week below its 50-week moving average—valued at $76,540 in the Oct. 22 analysis—and failed to recover within a month. It also cited ETF holdings falling below 1.22 million BTC, a credible timeline for quantum computing that could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, or U.S. fiscal consolidation as possible challenges. Other risks included competition for investment from AI and a technology downturn.
