Polymarket Study Reveals Small Group Drives Market Accuracy
- Only 3.14% of Polymarket accounts are classified as skilled, yet they generate most price discovery.
- Skilled traders retained their classification 44% of the time out-of-sample, compared to just 10% for skilled mutual funds.
- The CFTC filed an insider trading complaint on April 23, 2026, related to a Polymarket contract on Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power.
- Polymarket’s monthly trading volume surged from $3.3 million in December 2023 to $1.98 billion in December 2025.
- Researchers identified 1,950 accounts that potentially engaged in insider trading, averaging $15,000 in profits each.
A recent study analyzed nearly 99,000 events on Polymarket, revealing that a small group of skilled traders significantly influences market accuracy and price discovery. Despite rapid growth in active accounts and trading volume, only a narrow segment consistently demonstrates skill.
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