Iran Bound Ship Seized Amid Tensions

Ship Seizure Heightens Maritime Risk in Strait of Hormuz

• The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 has decreased to 45.5%, down from 76% a week ago.
• Normal traffic in the Strait by May 15 is highly unlikely, with only a 0.2% probability.
• A ship seized off the UAE coast is reportedly moving towards Iranian waters, marking the first such incident since June 2025.
• This event reflects ongoing instability and increased maritime risk due to regional geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the US.

The recent ship seizure near UAE waters underscores heightened maritime risk in the Strait of Hormuz, with market confidence in normal ship transit by May significantly reduced.