Trump Announces Ceasefire Reopens Hormuz

Trump Announces Ceasefire with Iran, Boosting Market Confidence

• The announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran increased the April 7 market probability to 70.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago.
• The April 7 market surged by 42 points, from 34% to 76%, following the news.
• The April 15 market rose to an 80% YES probability, indicating expectations for the ceasefire to extend beyond two weeks.
• A share priced at 70.5¢ offers a potential return of $1 if confirmed by April 7, translating to a 1.42x return.
• The total USDC traded in the last 24 hours reached $3,680,901, showing strong market interest.

The ceasefire announcement has significantly impacted prediction markets, with traders showing increased confidence in sustained peace efforts linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.