US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall Over 15-Year Freeze

ECB Inflation Forecast Rises, Rate Cut Unlikely Amid War Impact

• The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased its inflation forecast to 2.6% for 2026 due to the war’s impact on energy supplies.
• The probability of a 50+ basis point rate decrease at the April 2026 meeting is just 0.1%.
• Markets are not anticipating any significant chance of a rate cut despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Only $2 in USDC has been traded against a face value of $3,767 for a potential rate decrease, indicating low market interest.

The ECB’s revised inflation forecast and minimal market activity suggest that maintaining or raising rates is more likely than a cut. The impact of the war on energy supplies continues to shape ECB policy direction.