US-Israel Conflict Shuts Hormuz 60000 Flights

Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Travel and Trade

• The US-Israel conflict has led to a 30-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Polymarket contract shows only a 25% chance of traffic normalization by May 31.
• Over 60,000 flights rerouted or canceled, impacting 6 million passengers.
• The market for Strait of Hormuz has zero recent USDC volume, indicating thin liquidity.
• A related contract on Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran remains stagnant at a 6% probability.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted global aviation and trade, with significant disruptions in flight operations and skepticism about quick resolution reflected in market contracts. The lack of recent activity in the strait’s market underscores the uncertainty surrounding its reopening.