Bank of Japan Holds Rates Amid Inflation
The Bank of Japan maintains rates amid inflation from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran; market sees a rate cut as unlikely. #Update #Economy
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Iran Peace Talks Deadline Nears
Vice President Vance returns to Pakistan for US-Iran peace talks with market odds at 12.5% YES, reflecting skepticism ahead of the April 22 deadline. #Update #Market
Uranium Talks Stall US-Iran Deal Doubt
U.S.-Iran uranium talks stall; market odds for April 30 enrichment deal rise to 35.9% YES amid fragile trading conditions. #Update #Market
WTI Crude Oil Steady Amid US-Iran Tensions
WTI Crude Oil trades at 1.4% YES on Polymarket amid US-Iran tensions, with low liquidity and skepticism about immediate price surges. #Update #Market
Iran Rejects US Nuclear Demands Impact
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejects US nuclear demands, raising concerns over leadership stability. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 rise to 3.7%. #Update #Diplomacy
Adobe Partners with Microsoft and OpenAI
Adobe partners with @Microsoft, Anthropic, @OpenAI, and @NVIDIA; Polymarket odds for NVIDIA’s market cap dominance by June 30 at 88.5%. #Update #Business
Google Challenges Nvidia with New TPUs
Google challenges Nvidia with new TPUs, but prediction markets show 86.5% confidence Nvidia will maintain largest market cap by June 30. #Update #Tech
Iranian Plot Foiled: Israeli Forces Protect Pipeline
Israeli forces uncover Iranian Revolutionary Guards plot to sabotage oil pipeline; Kharg Island attack odds rise to 11%. #Update #Security
US-Israeli Strikes Damage 20 Iranian Aircraft
US-Israeli strikes damage 20 Iranian aircraft; odds of Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 rise to 14.4%. #Update #Military
Space Force Launches First Combat Operation
The U.S. Army deploys unmanned ground drones; Space Force debuts in Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iranian infrastructure. Gulf state military action market rises to 9.5% YES. #Update #Military
US-Iran Tensions Escalate Amid Blockade
US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield warns of possible strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if no nuclear deal; WTI Crude Oil market remains unchanged. #Update #Geopolitics
Oil Prices Surge as Iran Blocks Strait
US oil prices rise above $89/barrel as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, increasing Polymarket’s WTI Crude Oil $160 April 2026 probability to 1.4% YES. #Update #Commodities
US Seizes Iranian Ship Escalating Tensions
Trump announced US military seized an Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman; odds of Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 rose to 9.5% from 4%. #Update #Geopolitics
Iran Claims Hormuz Control US Retreat
The Iranian Red Crescent released CCTV footage of an Israeli strike on an Iranian hospital amid the 2026 conflict; prediction markets show Iran will retaliate by April 30. #Update #Conflict