Tencent Pursues DeepSeek Stake at $20B+
Tencent and Alibaba are pursuing stakes in DeepSeek, aiming for a valuation over $20 billion amid high investor demand. Alibaba’s stock rose 2% on the news. #Update #Tech
Cryptobriefing
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Iran Seizes Two Vessels in Gulf
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized two vessels in the Persian Gulf, signaling control over its security. April 30 regime fall market drops to 0.5% YES. #Update #Geopolitics
Bitcoin Demand Rises as Russia Approves Bill
Russia’s State Duma passes crypto regulation bill, boosting Bitcoin’s $80K April odds to 66% YES, up from 44%, signaling potential demand increase. #Update #Crypto $BTC
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge to $11.8M
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.84M amid geopolitical stability, boosting $BTC odds of reaching $80K to 60.5% YES; watch US-Iran relations and BlackRock moves. #Update #Crypto $BTC
Iran Oil Shut-Ins Loom in 15 Days
Iran faces potential oil industry shut-ins in 15 days due to sanctions and war damage, increasing regime instability risk by 3% to 9%. #Update #Geopolitics
Pakistan Diplomacy Lowers US-Iran Ceasefire Odds
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony raises US 10-year Treasury yields; Polymarket odds for a 25 bps Fed rate cut in April rise to 0.2% from 0%. #Update #Finance
Iran Cancels Talks Escalating US Tensions
Iranian hardliner Ali Gholhaki cancels Pakistan talks, rejecting US demands on nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz, dropping US-Iran ceasefire odds to 21.5%. #Update #Diplomacy
Macron Pledges Lebanon Support in Israel Talks
Macron pledges support for Lebanon in Israel talks, but France won’t mediate. Diplomatic meeting odds by April 30 remain at 100% YES. #Update #Diplomacy
Trump Cabinet Shakeup: Patel Joins by June
Rep. Ted Lieu suggests FBI Director Kash Patel is next for a Trump Cabinet shakeup, with markets predicting a 61% chance of departure by June 30. #Update #Political
Fed Markets Stable Trump Urges Rate Cuts
President Trump expresses disappointment if Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh doesn’t cut rates; muted market reaction suggests skepticism of Trump’s influence. #Update #Politics
Solana Surges in Tokenized Stocks Trading
Solana processes more tokenized stock volume than all other blockchains since July 2025; bullish sentiment targets $110 by April 18. #Update #Crypto $SOL
US-Iran Ceasefire Ends No Talks Scheduled
The US-Iran ceasefire expires today with no new talks planned; odds for ending by April 21 rise to 4% YES. #Update #Geopolitics
Ethereum Acquisition: Bitmine Targets 5% Supply
@BitmineTech purchases $234M in $ETH, increasing its holdings to 4.12% of total supply amid US-Iran tensions. Targeting 5% supply. #Breaking #Crypto $ETH
Pakistan Mediates Volatile US-Iran Ceasefire Talks
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz worsen Chinese shipping woes; 29% chance of 80 ships transiting by April 30, up from 12%. #Update #Shipping